An intercompany dispatch support system for intermodal transport chains

A critical problem in an intermodal transport chain is the direct meet at the transhipment nodes. This requires information technology and modern communication facilities as well as much closer collaboration between all the concerned transport operators in the chain. The TELETRUCK system - currently under development at the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (Deutsches Forschungszentrum für Künstliche Intelligenz DFKI GmbH) - is a dispatch support system that tackles those problems. Intercompany planning, scheduling, and monitoring of intermodal transport chains will be supported by our system. It aims at providing smooth access to railway time tables and rail-based transport services and - much more important - at allowing for the planning of both, exclusively road-based and combined journeys and showing their cost-effectiveness, where- and whenever possible. We will describe our approach - based on intelligent agent technology - both the current state of implementation and our goal of the very next future

Neškodljivost i djelotvornost glogova ekstrakta WS 1442 i nordijskog hodanja na profil lipida i funkciju endotela: randomizirano, djelomice slijepo probno istraživanje u dobrovoljaca prekomjerne tjelesne težine

Overweight and physical inactivity adversely affect endothelial function and are risk factors for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Both Crataegus extract WS 1442 and physical exercise exert beneficial effects on endothelial function. We investigated whether WS 1442 and Nordic walking (NW) had comparable effects on endothelial function and lipid profile in overweight subjects. In this partially blinded pilot study, overweight, otherwise healthy volunteers aged 45-75 years were randomized into four groups as follows: WS 1442 2x450 mg/day (WS-standard), WS 1442 2x900 mg/day (WS-double), exercise 2x30 minutes/week (NW-low), and exercise 4x45 minutes/week (NW-high) for 12 weeks. Safety was assessed based on adverse events. Endothelial function testing (EndoPAT®), assessment of endothelial progenitor cells, lipid profiles, and treadmill testing were performed. Sixty subjects participated in the study. At baseline, subjects in WS-standard/-double groups had higher lipid levels and greater impairment of endothelial function. Subjects with impaired endothelial function showed improvement regardless of the type of intervention. Subjects in WS-standard and WS-double groups showed a trend towards modest decrease in triglycerides and modest increase in HDL-cholesterol; most changes were within the normal limits. In NW-low/-high groups, values also remained within the normal range. Exercise capacity improved in both NW groups. WS-double showed no additional benefits over WS-standard. All adverse events were unrelated or improbably related to treatment. In conclusion, WS 1442 and exercise training were safe and showed beneficial effects on endothelial function and lipid profile in overweight but otherwise healthy volunteers; exercise capacity improved only by Nordic walking.Prekomjerna težina i tjelesna neaktivnost štetno djeluju na funkciju endotela i predstavljaju rizične čimbenike za aterosklerozu i srčanožilne bolesti. Glogov ekstrakt WS 1442 i tjelesna aktivnost oboje utječu povoljno na endotelnu funkciju. Ispitivali smo imaju li WS 1442 i nordijsko hodanje (NH) usporedive učinke na endotelnu funkciju i profil lipida u osoba prekomjerne tjelesne težine. U ovom djelomice slijepom probnom istraživanju su inače zdravi dobrovoljci prekomjerne tjelesne težine u dobi od 45 do 75 godina nasumce podijeljeni u četiri skupine: WS 1442 2x450 mg/dan (standardna doza WS), WS 1442 2x900 mg/dan (dvostruka doza WS), tjelovježba 2x30 minuta na tjedan (niska razina NH) i tjelovježba 4x45 minuta na tjedan (visoka razina NH) kroz 12 tjedana. Neškodljivost se procjenjivala na osnovi štetnih događaja. Provedeno je testiranje endotelne funkcije (EndoPAT®), procjena endotelnih progenitorskih stanica, profila lipida te test opterećenja. U istraživanju je sudjelovalo 60 ispitanika. Ispitanici na standardnoj/dvostrukoj dozi WS imali su bazalno više razine lipida i veći poremećaj endotelne funkcije. Ispitanici s poremećenom endotelnom funkcijom pokazali su poboljšanje bez obzira na vrstu intervencije. Ispitanici na standardnoj i dvostrukoj dozi WS pokazivali su tendenciju ka skromnom sniženju triglicerida i skromnom porastu HDL-kolesterola; većina ovih promjena bila je unutar normalnih granica. Uz nisku/visoku razinu NH vrijednosti su također ostale unutar normalnog raspona. Sposobnost za tjelovježbu poboljšala se u objema skupinama NH. Dvostruka razina WS nije pokazala dodatnih koristi u usporedbi sa standardnom dozom WS. Svi štetni događaji bili su nevezani ili malo vjerojatno povezani s tretmanom. U zaključku, WS 1442 i tjelovježba pokazali su se neškodljivima i imali su povoljan učinak na funkciju endotela i profil lipida kod inače zdravih osoba prekomjerne tjelesne težine; sposobnost za tjelovježbu poboljšala se samo pomoću NH

Nine challenges in incorporating the dynamics of behaviour in infectious diseases models.

Traditionally, the spread of infectious diseases in human populations has been modelled with static parameters. These parameters, however, can change when individuals change their behaviour. If these changes are themselves influenced by the disease dynamics, there is scope for mechanistic models of behaviour to improve our understanding of this interaction. Here, we present challenges in modelling changes in behaviour relating to disease dynamics, specifically: how to incorporate behavioural changes in models of infectious disease dynamics, how to inform measurement of relevant behaviour to parameterise such models, and how to determine the impact of behavioural changes on observed disease dynamics

First Outbreak of Callitrichid Hepatitis in Germany: Genetic Characterization of the Causative Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus Strains

AbstractCallitrichid hepatitis (CH) is a highly fatal, rodent-borne zoonosis of New World primates (family Callitrichidae) caused by lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV). It is unclear whether virulence in Callitrichidae is associated with specific genetic or phylogenetic markers of the virus as only a partial S RNA sequence of a single CH-associated isolate is known. In a period of 10 months, three pygmy marmosets (Cebuella pygmaea) and one Goeldi's monkey (Callimico goeldii) died from CH in a German zoo. LCMV was most likely transmitted by wild mice. Infection was associated with characteristic histopathological lesions in liver, brain, and lymphoid tissue. Virus sequences from all callitrichids and a captured mouse were ≥99.2% identical. LCMV strains from a pygmy marmoset and the Goeldi's monkey were isolated in cell culture and the 3.4-kb S RNA was completely sequenced. Both strains differed considerably in their genetic and phylogenetic characteristics from known LCMV strains, including the previously described CH-associated strain. These data show that CH is widespread and can be caused by distantly related LCMV strains

Pelargonium Extract EPs 7630 in the Treatment of Human Corona Virus-Associated Acute Respiratory Tract Infections – A Secondary Subgroup-Analysis of an Open-Label, Uncontrolled Clinical Trial

Background: Experience in treating human coronavirus (HCoV) infections might help to identify effective compounds against novel coronaviruses. We therefore performed a secondary subgroup-analysis of data from an open-label, uncontrolled clinical trial published in 2015 investigating the proanthocyanidin-rich Pelargonium sidoides extract EPs 7630 in patients with the common cold. Methods: 120 patients with common cold and at least 2 out of 10 common cold symptoms received one film-coated 20 mg tablet EPs 7630 thrice daily for 10 days in an uncontrolled, interventional multicentre trial (ISRCTN65790556). At baseline, viral nucleic acids were detected by polymerase chain reaction. Common cold-associated symptoms and treatment satisfaction were evaluated after 5 days and at treatment end. Based on the data of patients with proof of viral nucleic acids, we compared the course of the disease in patients with or without HCoV infection. Results: In 61 patients, viral nucleic acids were detected. Of these, 23 (37.7%) were tested positive for at least one HCoV (HCoV subset) and 38 (62.3%) for other viruses only (non-HCoV subset). Patients of both subsets showed a significant improvement of common cold symptoms already after 5 days of treatment, although the observed change tended to be more pronounced in the HCoV subset. At treatment end, more than 80% of patients of both groups were completely recovered or majorly improved. In both subsets, less than 22% of patients took concomitant paracetamol for antipyresis. The mean number of patients’ days off work or school/college was similar (0.9 ± 2.6 days in HCoV subset vs 1.3 ± 2.8 days in non-HCoV subset). In both groups, most patients were satisfied or very satisfied with EPs 7630 treatment. Conclusion: EPs 7630 treatment outcomes of common cold patients with confirmed HCoV infection were as favourable as in patients with other viral infections. As this trial was conducted before the pandemic, there is currently no evidence from clinical trials for the efficacy of EPs 7630 in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Dedicated non-clinical studies and clinical trials are required to elucidate the potential of EPs 7630 in the early treatment of HCoV infections

The impact of tinnitus distress on cognition

Tinnitus is the chronic perception of a phantom sound with different levels of related distress. Past research has elucidated interactions of tinnitus distress with audiological, affective and further clinical variables. The influence of tinnitus distress on cognition is underinvestigated. Our study aims at investigating specific influences of tinnitus distress and further associated predictors on cognition in a cohort of n = 146 out-ward clinical tinnitus patients. Age, educational level, hearing loss, Tinnitus Questionnaire (TQ) score, tinnitus duration, speech in noise (SIN), stress, anxiety and depression, and psychological well-being were included as predictors of a machine learning regression approach (elastic net) in three models with scores of a multiple choice vocabulary test (MWT-B), or two trail-making tests (TMT-A and TMT-B), as dependent variables. TQ scores predicted lower MWT-B scores and higher TMT-B test completion time. Stress, emotional, and psychological variables were not found to be relevant predictors in all models with the exception of small positive influences of SIN and depression on TMT-B. Effect sizes were small to medium for all models and predictors. Results are indicative of specific influence of tinnitus distress on cognitive performance, especially on general or crystallized intelligence and executive functions. More research is needed at the delicate intersection of tinnitus distress and cognitive skills needed in daily functioning

Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study. The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants' age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. Interpretation: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. Funding: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research